Do Anglers Stay In During Typhoon Warnings? Inconclusive on Current Data

The earlier findings from 9 typhoons and 21 warning days about how many anglers fished during land and sea-only warnings are withdrawn. In the 2026-09-26 snapshot, the 26 days covered by sea warnings hold 872 eligible catches from 418 anglers, but anglers with a logged catch reflect both going out and catching something, there is no record of effort or blank trips, and the warning list is verified only to 2026-08-28. Whether warnings change anglers' behaviour is currently inconclusive.

Inconclusive: anglers with a logged catch cannot separate staying home from going out without a catch, and the warning list is not verified to the data cut-off. During typhoons, follow official warnings and actual sea conditions.

Reviewed 2026-09-30 | Data 2025-01-01 to 2026-09-25

The earlier version counted anglers with a logged catch each day as the number who went out, compared 9 typhoons and 21 warning days from 2025-01-01 to 2026-09-04 with the same weekdays in ordinary weeks, and reported changes in marine angling during land and sea-only warnings and after the all-clear. Those conclusions are withdrawn.

There are three reasons. Anglers with a logged catch reflect both whether they went out and whether they caught something; there is no effort or blank-trip record, so anyone who went out in a typhoon and caught nothing is invisible. The warning list is frozen at the 9 typhoons of the original study, the last sea warning ending 2026-08-28, and warnings after that up to 2026-09-25 have not been verified. The ordinary-day expectations and permutation test have not been rebuilt on the current data.

So whether typhoon warnings change anglers' behaviour is currently inconclusive. This is neither a finding of no effect nor a finding of an effect.

The warning list (CWA typhoon database, frozen at publication) has 9 typhoons, 5 of them with a land warning; the first sea warning began 2025-07-05 and the last ended 2026-08-28. Counting calendar days touched by a warning window, sea warnings cover 26 days and land warnings 14 days.

From 2025-01-01 to 2026-09-25 there are 14,424 eligible catches on 612 days. Days under a sea warning hold 872 catches (marine 304, freshwater 567) from 418 anglers; days under a land warning hold 296 (marine 88, freshwater 208) from 187 anglers.

These count logged catches, not people who went out; water class is used only for grouping and no record was excluded because of it.

Sea conditions can stay dangerous during a typhoon warning and after it is lifted. Before going out, follow the Central Weather Administration's warnings and the actual local sea state; the figures on this page are not advice to go out.

A record of every trip, including trips with no catch, to separate staying home from not catching.

A complete warning list with land-warning times verified to 2026-09-25, hypotheses written down before looking at the data, then rebuilt ordinary-day expectations and permutation test.

Source: a read-only point-in-time snapshot taken 2026-09-26 (38,040 catch records), recomputed offline with no production reads or writes; warning times come from the CWA typhoon-database list frozen in the repository.

Records count when the current record, species identity and context rules all pass and both upload and verified capture time are on or before 2026-09-25; shrimp-fishing, managed-pond and non-fish records are excluded. Dates use the Taipei date of the verified capture time.